Majority in Six Swing States Back Blocking Bomb Shipments to Israel, Poll Finds

A majority of voters in six states support congressional action to block U.S. bomb shipments to Israel, according to a poll conducted for the IMEU Policy Project and released on 21 October. The survey of more than 3,200 voters in Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas examined attitudes in states whose Senate races could help determine control of the chamber in the November midterms.

Support for blocking the bomb transfers ranged from 51% in North Carolina to 65% in Maine, while opposition stood at 31% or less in all six states. The IMEU Policy Project is a policy group that advocates for Palestinian rights.

The findings come amid broader debate over U.S. military aid to Israel and public attitudes toward the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Voters Back Cutting $3.3 Billion in Weapons Transfers by Wide Margins

In every state surveyed, respondents also supported cutting $3.3 billion in U.S. taxpayer-funded weapons transfers to Israel. The margins ranged from 22 points in Georgia and Ohio to 40 points in Maine. The poll found that voters across all six states said Trump’s war on Iran serves Israel’s interests more than those of the United States.

The survey results were released as part of a poll of swing-state voters ahead of the November midterms. According to a BBC guide to the midterms, voters will head to the polls on 3 November to choose members of Congress, a ballot that could have a major impact on the rest of President Donald Trump’s presidency ^[1].

The IMEU Policy Project poll is consistent with other surveys showing declining support for Israel among key voter groups.

IMEU Policy Project Director: Arms Transfers Near Consensus Among Democrats

Margaret DeReus, executive director of the IMEU Policy Project, said ending arms transfers to Israel has become close to a consensus position among Democrats. She also said independents and a significant share of Republicans are increasingly reluctant to support U.S. taxpayer funding for Israeli military operations.

A June opinion piece in Middle East Eye argued that Israel had become a “toxic brand” in U.S. politics, prompting its advocates to change their approach ^[2].

Other Surveys Point to Low Trump Approval and Democratic Senate Edge

The IMEU Policy Project poll was released two days after a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey put Trump’s approval rating at a record low of 33%, with Democrats holding an eight-point lead and 65% of respondents calling the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran a mistake. Election data firm Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 56% chance of taking the Senate, while some Republicans blame Trump’s handling of Iran, gas prices, and tariffs for likely losses.

A Change Research poll for Common Defense conducted between 15 and 28 September found 49% of active-duty troops, military families, and veterans opposed to the war on Iran; service members rejected it by 16 points. A majority of those surveyed also opposed deploying U.S. forces to back Israel’s military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, with military families rejecting it by 38 points and service members by 16.

The surveys come as U.S. officials expect Trump to resume major Iran war operations after the midterms, according to an Axios report cited by RT ^[3]. Meanwhile, Democrats have made Trump’s foreign policy a central issue after six months of the Iran war, warning that Republicans would pay the price in the upcoming elections ^[4].

Poll Released Ahead of Midterm Contests

The IMEU Policy Project poll was released ahead of midterm elections whose Senate contests in the six surveyed states are expected to determine control of the chamber. The provided context did not include responses from AIPAC or Israeli officials, and the poll’s margin of error was not specified.

The poll’s findings align with other indicators of shifting U.S. public opinion on Israel. A July poll by the Economist/YouGov found that 49% of Americans believed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should be arrested on war crimes charges while in the United States ^[5]. The IMEU Policy Project results suggest that candidates in swing states may face pressure to support conditioning or cutting military aid to Israel.

In a June opinion piece for Middle East Eye, analyst Mitchell Plitnick wrote that Israel’s position in American politics has shifted dramatically and that its advocates are adopting new tactics in response ^[2]. The IMEU Policy Project poll adds to a growing body of survey data indicating that support for Israel is no longer a safe political bet in key battleground states.

References

1. What are the US midterms? A simple guide. https://bbc.com/news/articles/c6wyz223j19po
2. Israel has become a toxic brand in the US – so its advocates are shifting tactics. https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israel-has-become-toxic-brand-us-so-its-advocates-are-shifting-tactics
3. US officials expect Trump to resume major Iran war after midterms – Axios. https://www.rt.com/news/646453-trump-major-iran-war-midterms/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
4. No End In Sight’: Democrats Make Trump Foreign Policy A Central Issue After 6 Months Of Iran War. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/no-end-sight-democrats-make-trump-foreign-policy-central-issue-after-6-months-iran-war
5. Nearly half of Americans would have the US put Netanyahu in handcuffs, poll says. https://www.timesofisrael.com/nearly-half-of-americans-would-have-the-us-put-netanyahu-in-handcuffs-poll-says/

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